Dominica Weather

Updated 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

Updated 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

June 1st to November 30th is designated as the official period for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. NOAA issued the scheduled update for its 2017 hurricane season outlook on August 9, 2017. The season has the potential to be extremely active and could be the most active since 2010. Forecasters are predicting a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season (compared to the May prediction of 45-percent chance), 30-percent chance of near-normal compared to 35-percent in May and 10% below-normal a reduction from 20% in May. The updated prediction includes the season activity to-date.

Updated NOAA prediction for August:

·         14 to 19  Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) (prediction in May 11 to 17)

·         5 to 9 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph higher) (unchanged from May)

·         2 to 5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher) (prediction in May 2 to 4)

Note that we are entering the peak of the season which runs from mid-August to late October.  Experts noted that the wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.

Other factors that point to an above-normal season include warmer waters across the tropical Atlantic than models previously predicted and higher predicted activity from available models.

Eleven weeks into the season there have been eight named storms with two (Franklin and Gert) intensifying to hurricane. This is more than half the number of storms during an average six-month season and double the number of storms that would typically form by early August. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

 

2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

Arlene (formed April 20)

Lee

Bret

Maria

Cindy

Nate

Don

Ophelia

Emily

Philippe

Franklin

Rina

Gert

Sean

Harvey

Tammy

Irma

Vince

Jose

Whitney

Katia

 

Regardless of the seasonal outlook, it only takes one storm to significantly disrupt your life. The Dominica Meteorological Service continue to advise the public that less focus should be placed on whether the island is under a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning and greater attention must be given to the local hazards of flooding both inland and coastal, landslides and strong winds. All must finalize preparations such as: effecting repairs to compromised buildings that are in use, clear blocked drains and waterways around homes, remove overhanging tree branches, developing a family communications plan, building an emergency supply kit for your home and know where your community shelters are located. It is important to remain vigilant in order to protect yourself and your family. 

 

Be Prepared!!!

 

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Government of Dominica

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