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Seasonal Outlook (October to December 2016)
The dry season runs from December to May each year when the seas are relatively cooler and thunderstorms and rainfall activities are relatively low. Rainfall accumulated at both the Canefield and Douglas-Charles Airports was above normal. Above to normal temperatures were recorded at both stations.
Recent observations:
ENSO neutral conditions continued with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) warming to about 0.3 to 0.5°C above average in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4).
Several models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer. However, in recent runs some models are now favouring the continuation of ENSO-neutral well into the second half of the wet season (50 to ~55% chance). However, chances for El Niño remain elevated (35-50%) relative to the long-term average into the fall.
As ENSO conditions are currently neutral, no impact on Caribbean rainfall is expected. However, the chances for drier than usual conditions in the southern Caribbean will increase due to the possibility of the onset of El Niño. An appearing El Niño tends to increase temperatures 2 to 3 months later, boosting chances of a hot August to October period.
Rainfall Outlook:
JJA and SON 2017 Rainfall Outlook
Forecast:
Probability for June-July-August 2017
Probability for September-October-November 2017
| Station | Climatology (Wet days) | Forecast (Wet days) |
|---|---|---|
| Canefield Airport | 50 to 67 | 53 to 75 |
| Douglas-Charles | 53 to 69 | 57 to 76 |
Forecast:An increase in the number of wet days (medium to high confidence) is expected .
Implication:
| Station | Climatology (7 day wet spell) | Forecast (7 day wet spell) |
|---|---|---|
| Canefield Airport | 4 to 7 | 4 to 7.6 |
| Douglas-Charles | 2.2 to 5.6 | 2.4 to 6.2 |
Forecast: An increase in 7-day wet and very wet spells frequency (medium to high confidence).
IMPLICATION:
| Station | Climatology (3 day extreme wet spell) | Forecast (3 day extreme wet spell) |
|---|---|---|
| Canefield Airport | 0 to 1.3 | 0 to 1.5 |
| Douglas-Charles | 0 to 0 | 0 to 0 |
Forecast: There is little indication of change in frequency for 3-day extreme wet spells (low confidence).
Implication: Flash flood potential will become a concern.
There is no short term (March to August 2017) or long term (December 2016 to November 2017) drought concerns for Dominica at this time. Please continue to monitor the situation in the coming months.
Forecast:
Maximum (day-time) and minimum (night-time) temperatures averaged over the period June- July-August are forecast to be above to normal. Since temperatures are high and humidity is steadily increasing, it will feel increasingly hot towards August.
There is an 80% chance for at least 14 heatwave days and a 70% chance of at least 30 heatwave days for the season June to November 2017. Most heat wave days occur during August to October.
NOTE:This scenario becomes more likely and heat more severe, if a moderate to strong El Niño manifests by August.
IMPLICATIONS:
June-July-August: (Maximum temperature normal range: 30-32°C) (Mean temperature normal range: 27-29°C) (Minimum temperature normal range: 24-25°C)
Maximum/day-time temperature Probability
Minimum/night-time temperature Probability
Seasonal Outlook (October to December 2016)
The dry season runs from December to May each year when the seas are relatively cooler and thunderstorms and rainfall activities are relatively low. Rainfall accumulated at both the Canefield and Douglas-Charles Airports was above normal. Above to normal temperatures were recorded at both stations.
Recent observations:
ENSO neutral conditions continued with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) warming to about 0.3 to 0.5°C above average in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4).
Several models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer. However, in recent runs some models are now favouring the continuation of ENSO-neutral well into the second half of the wet season (50 to ~55% chance). However, chances for El Niño remain elevated (35-50%) relative to the long-term average into the fall.
As ENSO conditions are currently neutral, no impact on Caribbean rainfall is expected. However, the chances for drier than usual conditions in the southern Caribbean will increase due to the possibility of the onset of El Niño. An appearing El Niño tends to increase temperatures 2 to 3 months later, boosting chances of a hot August to October period.
Rainfall Outlook:
JJA and SON 2017 Rainfall Outlook
Forecast:
Probability for June-July-August 2017
Probability for September-October-November 2017
| Station | Climatology (Wet days) | Forecast (Wet days) |
|---|---|---|
| Canefield Airport | 50 to 67 | 53 to 75 |
| Douglas-Charles | 53 to 69 | 57 to 76 |
Forecast:An increase in the number of wet days (medium to high confidence) is expected .
Implication:
| Station | Climatology (7 day wet spell) | Forecast (7 day wet spell) |
|---|---|---|
| Canefield Airport | 4 to 7 | 4 to 7.6 |
| Douglas-Charles | 2.2 to 5.6 | 2.4 to 6.2 |
Forecast: An increase in 7-day wet and very wet spells frequency (medium to high confidence).
IMPLICATION:
| Station | Climatology (3 day extreme wet spell) | Forecast (3 day extreme wet spell) |
|---|---|---|
| Canefield Airport | 0 to 1.3 | 0 to 1.5 |
| Douglas-Charles | 0 to 0 | 0 to 0 |
Forecast: There is little indication of change in frequency for 3-day extreme wet spells (low confidence).
Implication: Flash flood potential will become a concern.
There is no short term (March to August 2017) or long term (December 2016 to November 2017) drought concerns for Dominica at this time. Please continue to monitor the situation in the coming months.
Forecast:
Maximum (day-time) and minimum (night-time) temperatures averaged over the period June- July-August are forecast to be above to normal. Since temperatures are high and humidity is steadily increasing, it will feel increasingly hot towards August.
There is an 80% chance for at least 14 heatwave days and a 70% chance of at least 30 heatwave days for the season June to November 2017. Most heat wave days occur during August to October.
NOTE:This scenario becomes more likely and heat more severe, if a moderate to strong El Niño manifests by August.
IMPLICATIONS:
June-July-August: (Maximum temperature normal range: 30-32°C) (Mean temperature normal range: 27-29°C) (Minimum temperature normal range: 24-25°C)
Maximum/day-time temperature Probability
Minimum/night-time temperature Probability
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It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.
The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making
The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.
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