Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued on August 9, 2018. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent down from 40 percent in May and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent.

The official Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 to November 30. An average six-month hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Updated NOAA prediction for August:

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·         9 to 13  Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) (prediction in May 10 to 16)

·         4 to 7 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph higher) (prediction in May 5 to 9)

·         0 to 2 Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher) (prediction in May 1 to 4)

Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere supports a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May.

Factors considered in the updated predictions:

1.      El Nino is now much more likely to develop with enough strength to suppress storm development during the latter part of the season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70 percent likelihood of El Nino during the hurricane season.

2.      Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average.

3.      A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes.

Regardless of the updated predictions calling for fewer storms to develop in the tropical Atlantic for the season, the public is advised to remain focus on being prepared. This outlook is not an indication to let down your guard as we are entering the peak period of the hurricane season. As we are all aware, it only takes one tropical cyclone to disrupt normal activities.

So far season has seen fifteen named storms, including eight hurricanes.

Be Prepared!!!