Covid-19 is an infectious disease presently affecting nearly a third of the world’s population. Gauging from the experience in China where the disease originated and ongoing epidemiological research, Covid-19 is assigned an R0 of 2.5 meaning an infectious person will on  average likely infect 2.5 people assuming no one in the population has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to the disease. The higher the R0, the faster the disease will spread from person to person.

Based on this R0 value alone, scientist project that between 20 and 60% of the worlds’ population could become infected. Obviously, R0 projections can vary and is often a function of several factors including standard of living, economic and social determinants among others. In respect to Covid-19, early containment and mitigation measures are most effective strategies to control the rate of  spread however, because the disease has a relatively long infectious period and asymptomatic individuals can spread the virus from person to person, other robust measures will need to be implemented at the same time.

In this context, I appeal to our leaders, churches, civil society to double down on all efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19 in Dominica. We can only keep ahead by conducting proper screening and testing, early diagnostics and quarantine measures that are effective and well managed to stop infectious persons from further spreading the disease. Contact tracing and social distancing are also important proactive measures that can be implemented simultaneously. I cannot over emphasize the need for communities, action groups, civil society and central government to work in tandem in a very trustful and transparent manner.

The rest of the world has taken swift actions to shut down borders and ports of entries to foreigners and nationals alike to prevent imported cases from reaching their shores. On the contrary, we were forewarned that our country would have to prioritize measure to decrease the health impact as opposed to trying to cushion the potential economic impact. The Government of Dominica has been hesitant to take heed of this advice by trying to balance the need to earn an extra tourist dollar with the need to keep the Dominican public safe. This obviously backfired this week and to date, Dominica has rocket to the top of the list within the OECS, having the most Covid-19 cases. It is wildly believed that autochthonous or community transmissions has now taken foot judging from the situation on the ground. This will pose a considerable challenge to the meagre health resources of the island. The lightning haste by the Prime Minister to close the country’s borders at this late stage will do little to contain the spread.

Unlike its neighbors, Dominica first Covid-19 case was reported in a far rural village well outside Roseau, Dominica’s most densely populated area. This was a golden opportunity to abruptly contain the spread in the locality. Unfortunately, we acted too slowly for whatever reasons and missed the opportunity. Community spread is the most difficult stage of control given our highly integrated social networks and family connections on the island. We should further consider this situation by analyzing the percentage of employees who commute using public transportation which is facilitated by sixteen (16) seater buses. This is not the only perplexing issue as there are concerns that commuting may facilitate the equitable distribution of the infection from emerging pockets to new areas. This will further compound the situation.

We cannot hope for the situation to get better refuse to implement the appropriate measures. The disease is going to have untold economic hardships on island economy which is so heavily dependent on tourism and service industries, but human life is what is most at stake now. My humble recommendation is for a swift and decisive step towards a state of emergency with the closure of all ports of entries and the scale back or cessation of all non-essential services and commerce, rather than being dependent on voluntary adherence to  keep people socially disaggregated for the time being.

Clement Marcellin