The latest forecast provides very little information about

expected rainfall accumulations. Prepare for the usual dry-
season conditions, with short-duration, low-intensity rainfall,

typically 100–230mm on the west coast and 290–530mm on the
east coast.
For coastal locations, expect between 25 to 35 wet days in the
west and 35 to 55 in the east.
At least one to two excessive rainfall events are possible, which
could trigger flash flooding (medium to high potential).
At least four 7-day dry spells and one 15-day dry spell are possible
(low confidence);
Temperatures are expected to increase as we transition into the
heat season (April to October); usual-to-warmer-than-usual
temperatures are possible (low to medium confidence). (Usual
ranges: daytime highs of 29–31°C and night-time lows of 22–
23°C).
CURRENT SEASONAL OUTLOOK: March to May 2026

Gastroenteritis and Influenza
There was an increase in reported cases of gastroenteritis across the
island, particularly among individuals aged 0-24 years. This rise may
be associated with periods of heavy rainfall and the potential
contamination of water sources.
A spike in influenza cases was also observed, particularly in February.
This increase followed the carnival period and is plausibly linked to
incoming visitors from colder regions where seasonal conditions
facilitate influenza transmission.
To reduce the spread of disease, the Ministry of Health, Wellness and
Social Services increased source reduction activities and expanded
public education efforts island‐wide, with a focus on reducing
mosquito breeding sites and promoting effective public response.

Vector-borne Illness
There was an increased risk of transmission of vector-borne
illnesses due to wetter-than-usual conditions in the months from
December to February. There were increased reports of suspected
dengue cases, mainly in urban areas. The trend remained relatively
constant throughout January and February.

Source reduction activities (top left to bottom right): beach cleanup, treatment of
tires with larvicide and white goods collection.
Photo Credit: Environmental Health Department
PREVIOUS SEASON (December 2025 to February 2026) HEALTH RECAP

Well-Being and Mental Health
Damming of the Pichelin River on January 25th, created significant
anxiety and fear among villagers downstream.

Temperature: Start of the cool season. Daytime highs were as usual
(29°C to 30°C), while night-time lows were cooler than usual in the
east (<22.2°C) and usual in the west (21.6°C to 22.0°C). There was only
one hot day (daily high greater than or equal to 32.9 °C) at Canefield
in December.
PREVIOUS SEASON (December 2025 to February

2026) CLIMATE RECAP

Landslide in Pichelin (Jan 25 2026)

Photo Credit: Dominica Street News

Low Health Risk
Medium Health Risk
High Health Risk

Very High Health Risk

LOW
MEDIUM

HIGH VERY
HIGH

HEALTH RISK METER

The Health Risk Meter provides an indication of the potential level of
health risk associated with the three-month climate outlook.

Respiratory illness, gastrointestinal illness, vector-borne illness, non-
communicable diseases, and well-being and mental health are colour

coded to indicate your potential exposure to these health risks.
What are the Health
Implications for March to May
2026?

NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES (NCD)

This Bulletin was made possible through the generous support of the Intra-ACP Climate Services and Related Applications (ClimSA)
Caribbean Programme in partnership with the European Union.
DISCLAIMER
The Dominica Health-Climatic Bulletin aims to inform and support the people of Dominica in managing climate-related health risks. The Dominica Health-Climatic Bulletin presents
information with the understanding that the Dominica Meteorological Service and the Ministry of Health, Wellness and Social Services make no warranties, either express or
implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the content. The agencies assume no liability for any loss, damage, or misinterpretation