(CNN)Forecasters are pointing to a possible named tropical system off the southeastern US coast this weekend.
There is a 70% chance of storm development over the next five days, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting.
This could be the sixth consecutive year with a storm forming before June 1 — the official start of hurricane season.
Previous preseason storms
• May 20, 2019 — Subtropical Storm Andrea
• May 25, 2018 — Tropical Storm Alberto
• April 19, 2017 — Tropical Storm Arlene
• January 12, 2016 — Hurricane Alex
• May 27, 2016 — Tropical Storm Bonnie
• May 8, 2015 — Tropical Storm Ana
If the system were named, it would be Arthur, the first name on this year’s Atlantic hurricane list.
Development is likely to happen just northeast or right over the Bahamas.
As the storm gets its act together it could come close to the East Coast early next week before getting pulled back out into the Atlantic Ocean.
The most significant threats to land will be probable tropical storm-force winds, heavy rainfall and dangerous surf.
“If the system were to develop, it would likely be a subtropical depression or subtropical storm,” CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen says. “A subtropical storm is a hybrid between a regular area of low pressure (cold core) and a purely tropical system (warm core).”
The NHC began giving subtropical storms a tropical cyclone name in 2002.
For a subtropical storm to become a hurricane, it has to become fully tropical by establishing a warm core and then strengthen to hurricane-force winds.
“This potential storm is not likely to become a full hurricane,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers says. “Still, with ocean temperatures above normal most of the year, the middle of May will likely become the new start of tropical storm season.”
This could be the sixth consecutive year with a storm forming before June.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/13/weather/tropical-arthur-forecast-weekend/index.html
